How do we get from foresight to policy? Identifying knowledge gaps.

Posted on September 2, 2012 by Tryggvi Thayer

I’ve allowed myself the dubious luxury of not strictly adhering to academic practice concerning references, since this is not strictly an academic forum. For those who are interested in references much of this is based on the excellent Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice, various works by J. Irvine and B. Martin (written jointly and separately), European Commission/JRC foresight projects, and many of the resources cited in previous postings on this site.

In some previous writings I have tried to make the case that foresight and long-term planning can be a beneficial approach to policymaking in times of rapid technological development (see for ex. here, and here). However, using foresight for social policy is quite a different process than using it for research and development planning, as it was originally intended. Using foresight for social policy planning involves a broader range of stakeholders and is more about shaping, and committing to, social and cultural change. But, for that to work, we need to understand how foresight programs can be made to produce outcomes that are likely to contribute to lasting change. In a lot of what has been written on foresight programs there are unambiguous references to a link between foresight programs and qualitatively different social policies as a primary outcome. Yet, it remains unclear to me how, precisely, foresight programs lead to policy decisions and, consequently, how foresight programs should be coordinated to ensure positive policy outcomes. So what I’ve done, and what I will discuss here, is to map the processes involved in foresight programs and their outcomes to identify potential gaps in our knowledge about them that can affect the ability to produce the types of policy outcomes that are hoped for. Continue reading →

Posted in Education, Information Society, Knowledge development, Leapfrogging development, Technology foresight, Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Foresight and educational planning: Engaging stakeholders to construct preferred futures.

Posted on August 6, 2012 by Tryggvi Thayer

Image credit: Jason Tester/IFTF

Foresight (or “technology foresight”) is a future-oriented approach to policy planning. Foresight programs involve the use of multiple futuring methods, such as scenario construction, Delphi surveys, trends analysis, etc., to engage diverse groups of stakeholders in activities that promote the construction of shared visions of the future, and figuring out how to achieve preferred futures. In the past decade foresight programs have been used to address a range of social policy issues, including education. The use of foresight for educational policy planning has, however, been limited. Considering how the increasingly rapid rate of technological development affects educational organizations through students, teachers, expectations of learning outcomes, etc., there is ample reason to reconsider how foresight can be used for educational policy planning.

In this article I describe how foresight has developed as a policy planning tool and describe some examples of how it has been used for educational policy planning. Finally, I’ll talk about some of the pros and cons of using foresight for educational policy, in particular whether education should be treated as a topic in its own right or as a dimension of broader social concerns. Continue reading →

Posted in Education, ICTs, Information Society, Knowledge development, Leapfrogging development, Technology foresight | 4 Comments

This is not the future of learning.

Posted on July 27, 2012 by Tryggvi Thayer

A video produced by Good Magazine and the Unversity of Phoenix titled “Future Learning” (see video below) has been making the rounds on the Internet. In the video a bunch of so-called “eduvators”, that are likely well-known to anyone involved in education: Salman Khan, Sugata Mitra, Ntiedo Etuk, etc., describe learning through things like engaging videos, video games and youth working together to collaboratively to figure things out in authentic settings. This is not the future of learning. It is the current state of learning. Show me a youth in any developed region of the world who hasn’t learned something using any, or even all, of the methods described in the video in the last week…

The main problem with this video is that it doesn’t distinguish between learning and education. As I’ve said, all of the methods for learning that are described in this video are used daily by youth all over the world – and they learn from those experiences. They don’t always learn what we want them to but they learn something nonetheless. The issue then is, how do we construct purposeful educational environments that are mindful of these ways that today’s youth learn? And more significantly, how do we create educational environments that can keep up with the rapid change in the ways that youth learn? If we build educational environments today that take as their starting points the ways of learning that are discussed in this video, then we’re really just trying to catch up. That falls somewhat short of forging our way into the future.

The future of learning will be driven by augmented reality technologies, cheap 3D printers, sophisticated authentic simulations, ambient intelligence, etc. Youth starting school today will be mired in these technologies long before they complete even their compulsory education, not to mention by the time they enter college or the workforce. What are we going to do in education today to make sure that youth are best prepared to use these emerging technologies to be active and critical self-motivated learners? It’s when we start seriously considering questions like that that we really start engaging with the future of learning.

Posted in Education, ICTs, Information Society, Internet, Knowledge development, Leapfrogging development, Technology foresight | 1 Comment

Originality in arts vs. sciences: I disagree with Neil deGrasse Tyson.

Posted on June 30, 2012 by Tryggvi Thayer

Edit: Title changed – See comments below.

Starry Night by Vincent Van Gogh

Maria Popova at Brainpickings posted a video recently of Neil deGrasse Tyson commenting on how creativity and originality work differently in the sciences and arts. I think Tyson is wrong. There are a lot more similarities between the sciences and arts than Tyson suggests and I think the perceived differences have more to do with an idealization of the arts and a fundamental misunderstanding of what the arts are and how artists work.
Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

The iPhone is 5 years old! So, what’s up?

Posted on June 29, 2012 by Tryggvi Thayer

It has been 5 years today since the first iPhone appeared. Although not the first smartphone, the iPhone undeniably launched the smartphone market as we know it today, and it’s been an astounding 5 years, to say the least. So, what’s going on now? Pew’s Kathryn Zickuhr has pulled together some recent data (slides 25-31 below) that provides food for thought.

Some of the more interesting stuff:

  • Smartphone ownership is just slightly higher for minority adults than white adults.
  • These devices are also more likely to be minority adults’ main source of Internet access. Same goes for all youth.
  • Interestingly, the data presented suggests that smartphone ownership amongst teens is only about one third that of young adults. However, the data on teens is one year older than the other data. Given how quickly technology is changing today and prices going down, I wonder what that looks like today?

What could all of this mean?

  • Smartphones seem to be narrowing some of the digital divides that have been prevailent in the US. Do smartphone users use the Internet differently than broadband and dial-up users? If so, is our thinking about what an “Internet user” is reflecting the reality?
  • Young adults seem to not see a need for traditional broadband Internet access, making do with their smartphone access. How relevant is it to teach technology to tomorrow’s young adults by seating them in front of a desktop or laptop computer?
  • The smartphone digital divide is age-based. Why are older people skipping smartphones? What kind of services are/will they miss out on? Is their late adoption hindering development?
Digital differences

Posted in ICTs, Information Society, Internet, Leapfrogging development, Technology foresight | Leave a comment

Institutions do change in response to technology. Just not the right change…

Posted on June 22, 2012 by Tryggvi Thayer

Richard Noss, professor at the Institute of Education, University of London, has an article up on the “Centre for Education Research and Policy’s” website where he puts forth two claims:

  1. We lack technology constructed specifically to support learning.
  2. Educational institutions have not changed in response to technological development.

I disagree with both of these claims. I also find it frustrating that both of these claims are likely to be met with widespread agreement because they are indicative of some of the real problems regarding technology and education. The first is that there is, and has been for a long time, an abundance of technology specifically intended to support learning. The second is that education has changed in response to technological development, but those changes are not of the type that Noss (and I) would like to see. Continue reading →

Posted in Education, ICTs, Information Society, Internet, Knowledge development, Technology foresight | Leave a comment